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Property price prediction: 1.7% fall over first quarter of 2020

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14/01/2020
No Boris bounce for the property market, according to one forecast, with prices expected to fall
Property price prediction: 1.7% fall over first quarter of 2020

House prices are predicted to fall by 1.7% over the first quarter of 2020 (January to March), according to reallymoving’s January House Price Forecast.

The moving services business said that ‘any anticipated Boris bounce in housing market activity failed to materialise in the value of deals agreed before Christmas’.

However, it found that annual growth in average house prices in England and Wales will remain in positive territory throughout the first quarter of the year, reaching 3.1% at the end of March.

The average property price at the end of the first quarter is estimated to be £288,070.

How can it predict prices?

Homebuyers register for quotes for home move services on the reallymoving site around 12 weeks before their purchase completes, so the business is able to provide an accurate three-month property price forecast based on the purchase price agreed.

It reckons average house prices in England and Wales will increase by 0.1% in January 2020 followed by a decline of -1.1% in February and -0.7% in March.

Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, said: “A forecast of continued positive annual growth confirms that the market is performing consistently more strongly than twelve months ago and consumer confidence in the housing sector is growing. But despite the UK’s imminent departure from the EU later this month there are still many questions about our future relationship which will deter buyers who don’t need to move urgently, curbing the potential for strong price growth during 2020.

“Those who are hoping for a ‘Boris bounce’ in house prices in March as a result of sales agreed straight after the Conservatives’ decisive election victory in December will have to wait a little longer. It’s likely that Christmas put a dampener on any immediate post-election flurry of activity from buyers, but we may see the delayed impact of this activity in January reflected in house price growth later in the spring.”

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