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Housing market facing ‘highly uncertain’ future – Nationwide

Adam Williams
Written By:
Adam Williams
Posted:
Updated:
16/02/2015

The outlook for the UK housing market is

The building society’s house price index showed prices had risen 0.8% between July and August, driving property prices up 11% in the last 12 months. The average house price now stands at £189,306.

However Gardner said the future direction of the market was unclear.

“The outlook for the housing market remains highly uncertain,” he said.

“The number of mortgage approvals fell by almost 20% between January and May, suggesting that activity was cooling.

“However, there was a modest rebound in June and it is unclear how much of the slowdown was due to the introduction of Mortgage Market Review rather than an underlying loss of momentum.”

Separate research from Hometrack said property prices in England and Wales rose just 0.1% between July and August, claiming demand from buyers was falling while new property listings flattened off.

“Important lead indicators in this survey are turning and pointing to a loss of momentum in house price growth,” said Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack

“In particular a widening gap between asking and achieved prices in the face of weaker demand and an increase in the time on the market. Both indicators are coming off a positive base which suggest a slowdown in the rate of growth rather than price falls. We expect a continued shift towards a seller’s market in the face of weaker, more price sensitive demand.”

Gardner’s analysis suggested buyer enquiries had fallen, adding the prospect of a base rate rise was putting people off.

“Surveyors report that new buyer enquiries have moderated somewhat in recent months, and the prospect of interest rate increases together with subdued wage growth may temper demand in the quarters ahead,” he added.

“However, the brightening economic outlook is likely to provide ongoing support for housing demand. Consumer sentiment remains buoyant thanks to declining inflation and sustained increases in employment.”

The latest Land Registry figures for July showed the average house price in England and Wales ended the month at £175,653, still some way behind the peak of £181,442 recorded in November 2007.

These figures represent a rise of 1.7% on June’s figures and annual growth of 7.2%, both buoyed by strong growth in the capital.

Rory Penn, partner at London property agency VanHan, said: “The Land Registry tends to be regarded as one of the more reliable of the various house price indices and shows values continuing to rise in July.

“While August may have been quieter, as you would expect, there is still demand from both domestic buyers and a seemingly infinite range of overseas homeowners and investors.”

Alex Gosling, managing director of estate agents House Simple, said the market would need to wait at least another month before any patterns emerge.

“September should give us a better guide as to the sentiment in the market. Don’t be surprised to see prices ease next month,” he said.

“All eyes will still be on the London property market and where it goes next. There are definitely signs that the capital’s housing market is cooling.

“But the concern will be how far do prices have to drop before panic starts to set in.”


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