First-time Buyers
Help to Buy house price bubble will aid Tory election bid
Conservative MPs rather than first-time buyers could reap the biggest benefit from Help to Buy thanks to a house price boom, a consultancy has suggested.
Capital Economics compared government popularity with house prices over a period of 15 years.
Describing the government scheme as a ‘political coup’, Capital Economics assistant economist Michael Pearce argued a government’s chance of getting re-elected was closely related to house prices.
He said rising house prices helped to boost consumer confidence and made the majority of Brits, who were homeowners, feel wealthier: “This majority is even more significant in political terms since homeowners are typically much more likely to vote than renters.”
While there was a chance of another house price bubble bursting, the fact the election was only two years away meant it was unlikely to harm the coalition, he added.
He said: “On balance then, while Help to Buy may eventually end in tears, it could turn out to have been a politically shrewd move as far as the government’s near-term electoral prospects are concerned.”
As house prices began to perk up this year, so did Conservative polling results, the study found. It estimated an annual house price rise of 5-10% would be enough to secure a Conservative victory.