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House prices predicted to grow just 0.1% in last quarter of 2021

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Is the property market running out of steam now the stamp duty holiday is over?
House prices predicted to grow just 0.1% in last quarter of 2021

House prices are expected to rise by just 0.1% over the final quarter of 2021, as the post-pandemic property market settles into a period of slower growth.

That’s according to reallymoving’s latest House Price Forecast, which captures the purchase price buyers have agreed to pay when they search for conveyancing quotes through the comparison site, typically 12 weeks before they complete. This allows the firm to provide a three-month house price forecast, which is the average gap between an offer being accepted and the property purchase completing.

And the forecast says house prices will rise 1.3% in October, but decline by 0.1% in November and drop again by 1.1% in December, meaning an overall quarterly growth of only 0.1%.

Slowing down

Reallymoving has also noted that conveyancing quote volumes are on a downward trend, falling 4% between August and September, further indicating that buyer demand is settling back down to more normal levels.

Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, said: “A return to slower growth and a steadier housing market is welcome, but there are a number of factors converging which could knock consumer confidence over the coming months such as the supply chain crisis, rising inflation and living costs, plus the prospect of increasing interest rates – though it’s too early to see their impact in the data yet.

“While the reduced supply of new homes for sale is making things difficult, buyers who are ready to move now are keen to press ahead and lock in a fixed-rate mortgage deal, helping keep their borrowing costs low.

“First-time buyers who have found themselves increasingly priced out of the market will be encouraged by evidence that the post-pandemic property boom is running out of steam, with prices falling over the final quarter in five UK regions and less competition for starter homes now that stamp duty incentives are over.”

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