Quantcast
Menu

First-time Buyers

Cancel Help to Buy to stave off housing bubble, economist warns

vickyhartley
Written By:
vickyhartley
Posted:
Updated:
07/03/2014

The government and Bank of England urgently need to cancel both the Help to Buy equity loan and bank guarantee schemes to prevent another housing bubble, said a banking economist.

Rob Wood, chief UK economist of Berenberg Bank said the 2.4% growth month-on-month growth reported by Halifax this week was just one of many signs pointing to rising momentum.

He added: “The bank of England should [also] stop talking about being alive to the housing risks and do something about them, by using its macroprudential tool-kit. Ultimately, a rise in interest rates may be needed to combat the risks. We expect the first hike in Q1 2015 with a 30% change of a Q4 2014 rise.”

He added that with house prices rising 9.4%, year-on-year, according to the Nationwide, the RICS survey consistent with 15%+ house price inflation and annual mortgage approvals up 42% in January, the market is not subdued.

Wood added: “It is a national recovery – all but three regions are recording 6%+ annualised house price inflation according to the Nationwide index – and is likely to continue, boosted by low interest rates and government stimulus.”

“Relative to earnings or consumer prices, houses are cheaper than at the 2007 peak. But the height of a bubble is not a sensible comparison. Low interest rates, rising confidence, government stimulus and improving wage gains will keep the market accelerating. Estate agents price inflation expectations are at a 10 year high,” he said.